The EpiNorth secretariat publishes this updated risk assessment at least once a month:

Conclusion
The most likely scenario is an introduction of the virus to most countries over the next few weeks and a large epidemic in the southern hemisphere over the next months while the northern hemisphere will experience a relatively calm period this summer (possibly with some outbreaks in closed settings like health care institutions, cruise ships and schools), followed by a large outbreak in the autumn or winter. However, it is not much less likely that there is a first wave in the north already this summer, like in the USA now. We do not know what percentage of the population will be infected and what percentage of the infected that will fall ill. The clinical presentation is largely mild, but some complicated cases and deaths do occur, even in previously health young people. We do not know whether the virus will acquire new genes that change its antiviral resistance or virulence or that may make it necessary to change the virus used for vaccine production.